A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #212 - From the war fronts (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

UKRAINE ---- Silence has fallen on what's happening on the battlefield 
in Ukraine. According to most commentators, very little is happening. 
The bombings of Kiev and Moscow are making headlines, but in reality, 
what's happening on the front lines is determining the outcome of the 
war . The front now runs along much of the border separating Ukraine 
from Russia, from the north and east of the country. At Punti's request, 
the Russian army is creating a security zone that should distance the 
Ukrainian army from the current border, granting Russian regions more 
time to defend themselves and preventing initiatives like the one at 
Kursk. But as we all know, appetite comes with eating, and while in Sumy 
Russian troops are getting dangerously close to the city (15 km), in 
Kharkiv Oblast the Russian army, at the tip of the border, east of the 
city, has surrounded an area of about 500-600 km, the existence of which 
is being questioned by pro-Ukrainians, and destined to expand, which 
leads one to think that, if the war continues, Russia's claims will 
inevitably lead to the conquest of the city of Kharkiv, the second most 
populous in the country, and to claim possession of the oblast of the 
same name, once the eternal battle of Kupianks is concluded.
But it is in the north of Donbass, around the fortified cities of 
Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Druzhkivka, that the final battle for control 
of Donbass is taking place. Here, the Ukrainian army is playing its last 
cards, attempting to counter the Russian generals' pincer maneuver on 
the three cities, working to envelop them in a vise that begins from the 
flanks of the front, after having already laid siege to the three cities 
from the east.
The Ukrainians, resisting Lyman and attacking the salient overlooking 
him, are attempting to block this enveloping maneuver by the Russian 
army from the north, with some success, thanks to the so-called 
"Operation Vivaldi," which was kept strictly under wraps until its 
success became clear. On this front, the Russian army has been forced to 
retreat to the Zherebets River, but to the south, after the capture of 
Kostyantynivka and with the imminent inevitable fall of Dobropillya, the 
Russian army will be able to execute the enveloping maneuver and reach 
the rear of the three cities, despite the efforts of the highly 
motivated Ukrainian nationalist corps sent to counter them. The battle 
will be very tough, and will take place under the conditions established 
by General Winter.
A separate discussion, however, is needed for the Zaporizhia front, 
where the capture of Orikiv is underway, a necessary preparatory step to 
besieging the city and reaching the Dniper. It cannot be ruled out that, 
following the successful conclusion of the Battle of Dobropillya, the 
Russian army will decide to begin crossing the 50-70 km no-man's land, 
largely devoid of urban areas, separating it from Dnipropetrovsk. If 
this were to happen, the oblast of the same name would also risk 
annexation, in accordance with Putin's principle that "wherever a 
Russian soldier sets foot, that is Russian territory."
But the battle is not only being fought on the front, but also in the 
rear; Thanks largely to the Geran 4 and 5 and the Banderol drones, the 
Russians have succeeded in wreaking havoc in the rear areas and 
logistics. They are dismantling the fuel supply network, first in the 
east and then in the west of the country. They are destroying all 
infrastructure, having already eliminated steel production. Most 
importantly, they have almost completely destroyed the electricity grid, 
as winter approaches. Finally, they are launching an unprecedented 
attack on the Odessa area, mortally damaging port infrastructure and 
wiping out food exports, which have been reduced to 40% of their 
potential. They are also destroying logistics, a process that extends to 
roads and bridges on the borders of Moldova and Romania, which allowed 
the transit of European aid, similar to what is happening in the Lviv 
region. Although the European Union's increasingly rapid drain on 
funding the Ukrainian government continues, with the relocation of drone 
factories to European soil, organized as a rear base for the front, 
there are serious doubts that Ukraine can sustain this risky strategy.
Especially since, as the results of the German elections suggest, a 
harbinger of an electoral landscape that will progressively involve 
Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and Poland throughout 2027, the 
pro-Ukrainian political leadership of the states led by the willing 
seems to be crumbling under the weight of growing opposition to the war 
and the sacrifices of European peoples to support Ukrainian nationalism. 
The only remaining support is the British government, eternally wavering 
but unwavering in pursuing its unremitting foreign policy of aggression 
against Russia, even with shifting government majorities and despite the 
rapid turnover of prime ministers.

IRAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST

The apparent stalemate in the Middle East is actually punctuated by 
warfare in Lebanon, where there is fighting and death, as is the case in 
Gaza, the West Bank, and even more dramatically in Yemen, where the 
Houthis are making rapid progress . Fighting is also ongoing in Iraq, 
Syria, the Strait of Hormuz, and on the Iranian front, where missile and 
drone exchanges are frequent, with an increasingly problematic and 
unstable ceasefire, reflecting the evolving moods of the White House 
tenant . The only thing calming the conflict is the shortage of 
ammunition in the United States and Israel, which, for its part, like 
Iran, is stockpiling whatever it produces or manages to obtain. Iranian 
diplomacy is very active, and in agreement with Oman, is trying to 
promote an agreement among the countries bordering the Straits, for a 
management of the Straits that excludes the US.
The removal of imperial power's bases from the region seems to be a 
foregone conclusion, especially since, after the destruction that has 
occurred, it is difficult and very costly to rebuild a control structure 
that has proven vulnerable and ineffective.
The idea that regional security should be pursued through mutual 
guarantees and a balance of power seems to be gaining ground, a view 
that should also include the Houthis and the Yemeni region, following 
Saudi Arabia's futile attempts to secure support for their fight, seems 
to be gaining ground. In this context, the nature, goals, and objectives 
of the Italian mission in the Strait of Ban el-Mandeb and their presence 
in Saudi Arabia with a contingent of 400 men are incomprehensible. This 
is incomplete, except for the ambition of Leonardo signing military 
supply contracts with Bin Salman in exchange for gas and oil supplies. 
Saudi Arabia is a historic accumulator of weapons it doesn't know how to 
use, lacking a real army and a people, given that the majority of the 
population is made up of migrants operating in a quasi-slavery status. 
This investment is particularly problematic, given the country's 
financial crisis in oil and gas infrastructure, its commitment to lavish 
investments, and its current shortage of petrodollars. This is not to 
mention the forced way in which the initiative was presented in Parliament.
The prospects for a quick end to the war and a resolution of the crisis 
appear to be a long one, and depend on the US's growing awareness of 
admitting defeat. This is difficult to swallow, as it entails the end of 
Israel's expansionist and hegemonic claims in the region, which are 
impossible to achieve without active US support. It is extremely 
difficult for the US to accept the idea that the Middle East has changed 
and will never be the same again, and to accept the need to compromise 
with Iran, which has certainly established itself as a regional power. 
Meanwhile, the axis between Iran, Russia, and China projects its 
influence across the region, exerting a stabilizing effect that fosters 
mutual security.

GL

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/09/29/dai-fronti-di-guerra/
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