A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #207 - From the Suez Canal to the Strait of Hormuz (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The Suez Crisis of 1956 can rightly be considered the end of French and 
British colonial ambitions. Faced with the canal's nationalization by 
Egyptian leader Nasser, the two nations attempted to force a return to 
the previous situation, but the US urged them to calm down.
At the time, it was still necessary to make it clear that France and the 
United Kingdom were no longer masters of the world, that colonialism was 
nearing its end. Seventy years later, we are facing a similar event that 
could mark the end of the American empire, with the difference that this 
time the crisis was induced not by external forces, but by the empire 
itself. Iran could not have unilaterally imposed control of the strait: 
the entire world would have revolted. However, the US provided an 
opportunity by militarily attacking Persia.
But how important is the Strait of Hormuz? Quite a lot, until the 
railways envisioned by China's Belt and Road Initiative are completed. 
Let's start with the fact that, as has been repeatedly repeated, 20% of 
the world's oil passes through Hormuz, a significant figure compared to, 
say, the 5% that was blocked by the 1973 crisis. Add to this that 
today's Western world is less equipped to absorb the crisis: Western 
nations are burdened by monstrous debts. The United States itself 
benefited from the crisis in 1973, taking advantage of the situation to 
impose the dollar as a bargaining chip and encourage domestic 
investment. All this to the point that, as few know or remember, the 
United States itself worked to block the first Arab mediation proposals.
Even greater increases in the price of oil were fine as long as it was 
exchanged in dollars: this was the birth of the famous petrodollars, 
still in operation today. Today, the situation is different. The United 
States is the largest oil producer and is profiting from a price 
increase, but those who profit are the oil companies; The US middle 
class, far poorer than in the 1970s, is having a hard time digesting an 
oil price increase in a country where, on average, people drive 60 km a 
day. Furthermore, not all oil is created equal, both in terms of how 
individual refineries operate and its end use. Thus, while the US 
exports oil, it also imports it, and the price of oil is universal (even 
with differences between various qualities), and imported oil inevitably 
contributes to inflation (not to mention that, of course, oil companies 
are taking advantage of the situation to impose unjustified domestic 
price increases).
Furthermore, the current shortage isn't something that will disappear as 
soon as the political situation resolves; we're not dealing with a 
system that can be turned on or off on command. Following a prolonged 
crisis, closed wells become contaminated by sand or other materials used 
to facilitate extraction, making it necessary to clean them up, 
regardless of any damage caused by the war. Moral of the story: it will 
take a few years before we return to optimal levels. For gas, the 
situation is even more complicated because of the liquefaction plant, 
which is needed to make the gas transportable. This plant itself 
requires maintenance once shut down. It's worth remembering, among other 
things, that only 20% of gas is used for heating: 80% goes to industry, 
which is therefore severely affected by a gas shortage.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, however, has other implications 
that are little discussed in the media. Perhaps the main consequence 
concerns fertilizers. To put it simply, if there is less fuel, you can 
use your car less often, cutting back on some trips, or you can return 
predominantly to teleworking; however, you can't stop eating. In 
countries like India or continents like Africa, where large percentages 
(and even absolute numbers) of the population are very poor, the lack of 
food risks triggering an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. But even in 
developed countries, the growing impoverishment of the middle class has 
led to a growing percentage of the population struggling to make ends 
meet. Bread riots are once again becoming commonplace.
Why and how are artificial fertilizers important? They serve to increase 
yields, up to doubling the land's productivity. This factor was already 
clear to the Germans during World War II, who "imported" truckloads of 
highly productive black soil from Ukraine to Germany. Between 20% and 
30% of the fertilizers transported by sea pass through the Strait of 
Hormuz, and the percentage increases to almost 50% for urea, which can 
be seen as the fuel of plants, allowing for the efficient transport of 
nitrogen, the primary chemical element necessary for life on earth (all 
this thanks to the storage of ammonia, the transport of which would 
otherwise be unsafe). Another ingredient transported through the Strait 
of Hormuz is sulfuric acid, used (among other purposes) as an acidity 
regulator to increase the efficiency of the fertilizers themselves.
For now, there's little talk about this bottleneck, both because the 
media lives primarily on the distribution of press releases rather than 
the pursuit of information, and because the impact will be felt in a few 
months, coinciding with the large summer harvests, when reduced 
production will become apparent, resulting in higher prices.
The problems generated by even a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz 
don't end with fertilizers: helium is another crucial element. Helium is 
an inert gas that sits quietly and doesn't react with anything. It is 
the product of radioactive decay and is found in small percentages in 
natural gas; this explains why it is produced in the Gulf countries. Its 
importance lies in the fact that it remains in a liquid state down to 
extremely low temperatures (4 degrees Kelvin, equal to -269 degrees 
Celsius): these are the temperatures at which the most advanced chips 
can be produced, the smallest ones (on the nanometer scale) needed for 
computers used by artificial intelligence. One of the main users of 
liquid helium is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), 
which produces semiconductors used in the data centers of Microsoft, 
Amazon, Google, and others. This is essentially the core of the most 
advanced technology the US is desperately banking on to save its own 
back. A potential blockade in chip production could potentially be a 
boost for China, which is catching up in this sector. Incidentally, 
Russia is a major producer of helium (a byproduct of natural gas 
extraction). We leave it to the reader to draw further conclusions.
Last but not least, aluminum is another element to keep in mind. It's 
not a precious metal; there's little profit in producing it, which is 
why the US has virtually stopped producing it (if there's no stock 
market profit, what's the point of producing it). But aluminum is used 
in countless industrial products (except for cans, airplanes, trains, 
cars) due to its lightness combined with strength, and it has the 
advantage of being easily recyclable: 40% of the aluminum imported by 
sea by the US comes from the Gulf. Another reason to expect a reduction 
in industrial activity, contrary to what the orange thug promises.
Incidentally, to highlight America's shortsightedness in matters of 
planning (even if unrelated to the Strait issue), it should be 
remembered that gallium is a kind of byproduct of aluminum production. 
Strictly speaking, gallium is not a rare earth, but it is still a highly 
valuable metal used both for the production of semiconductors and rapid 
battery charging systems. However, large aluminum production runs are 
needed to generate industrially usable quantities of gallium. When you 
try to pursue immediate profit and forget about planning!
It's clear, then, how important it is to control the Strait and how 
serious the consequences of a prolonged closure could be, ultimately for 
everyone, but especially for America's allies: the Japanese, Koreans, 
and Australians on the one hand, but also the Europeans and the 
Americans themselves. Russia is probably the most self-sufficient 
nation. It isn't capable of producing the latest-generation chips, but 
it produces enough fertilizer, not to mention oil and natural gas, and 
it also has a decent aviation industry (to keep costs low).
China certainly needs oil and gas, but it is equipped to withstand a 
complete closure of the Strait for more than a few months. However, it 
isn't completely closed, and it should be added that China has increased 
imports from Brazil, Angola, and Malaysia. China's calm is so true that 
it has halved its oil demand from Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, the Gulf countries appear to be the main losers, losing enormous 
revenues and then having to invest only to restore their infrastructure. 
As usual, being an ally of the US can be fatal (Kissinger, cit.).
Trump openly told Zelensky that he didn't have the cards; in this game, 
it seems the Iranians hold the cards (unless the nuclear powers involved 
in the conflict decide to blow the deal). Indeed, the idea of "opening" 
the strait is pure fantasy. The Iranian coast consists of hundreds of 
kilometers of high cliffs with natural caves capable of accommodating 
small, fast boats, not to mention the underwater tunnels built by the 
Iranians since the US invaded Iraq, tunnels from which they are able to 
launch underwater drones with an autonomy of up to four days. Finally, 
let's remember that the strait is called a strait because it is narrow 
and easily accessible by artillery; and the navigable part is even narrower.

Antonio Politi

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/04/19/dal-canale-di-suez-allo-stretto-di-hormuz/
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