A-Infos (en) Italy, FAI, Umanita Nova #30-25 - Abstentionism is scary. Regional elections in Tuscany. (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The results of the latest regional elections in Tuscany show a sharp 
increase in abstention. ---- These are the data relating to the trend of 
abstention over the last 10 years, as a percentage of the electorate: 
2014 (European elections) 33.28%, 2015 (regional elections) 51.72%, 2018 
(political elections) 22.53%, 2019 (European elections) 34.25%, 2020 
(regional elections) 37.40%, 2022 (political elections) 30.25%, 2024 
(European elections) 40.94%, 2025 (regional elections) 52.27%. ---- As 
can be seen, we are faced with a steady increase in abstention, with 
only two anomalies: the 2015 regional elections, in which abstention 
rose to a peak of 51.72% before returning to its consolidated trend in 
subsequent elections, and the 2022 general elections, in which 
abstention fell to 30.25%.

This second finding deserves separate consideration, as it ties in with 
the regional success of the Brothers of Italy party, for which numerous 
explanations have been offered. In my opinion, these two findings are 
connected, and can also be explained by the attitude of Giorgia Meloni's 
party toward the Conte and Draghi governments, particularly regarding 
the COVID emergency. It's likely, according to this interpretation, that 
many people, even those not directly involved in the anti-green pass 
movement, but still dissatisfied with the policies of the governments 
and the political forces that supported them, turned out to vote in the 
face of the pandemic, decreasing the number of abstentions and shifting 
their vote toward the Brothers of Italy party.

This is one of the factors, along with the traditional right-wing 
electorate's shift toward the more extremist positions of the party of 
the flame; a factor that has rapidly evaporated, given that support for 
the Brothers of Italy party already declined in the 2024 European 
elections, while in this year's regional elections the decline was even 
more pronounced. On both occasions, abstention rates increased again.

Exceeding the 50% abstention threshold is a symbolic element 
demonstrating citizens' support for the institution; for this reason, 
commentators have focused on the composition of the electorate and the 
"physiological" abstention associated with regional elections. According 
to this interpretation, the electorate for regional elections also 
includes voters who work elsewhere and who exercise their right to vote 
in another region during the general election, something that is not 
possible for regional elections. Supporting this thesis, we see that the 
electorate for the 2022 general election was composed of 2,811,953 
people, while in 2025 it was 3,007,061, a difference of approximately 
195,000 people. If we subtract this figure from the electorate for the 
most recent regional elections, the upward trend in abstention remains 
unchanged, even though it remains below the psychological threshold of 50%.

This trend, in general, reflects, on the one hand, a disaffection with 
political forces transformed into electoral lists, linked to narrow 
economic, financial, and speculative groups; on the other, it expresses 
a rejection of a structure that concentrates power in the hands of the 
regional president, stripping the regional council of any role in 
appointing the president and the executive branch. This structure 
certainly ensures greater stability for the executive branch, but at the 
same time reduces the possibilities for bottom-up control that should be 
a hallmark of a democratic system. In reality, the evolution of the 
region in recent years demonstrates that every government tends to 
become dictatorial, reducing elected representatives to mere extras 
tasked with approving decisions made by the president and executive branch.

In this context, the role of the opposition, especially the radical 
ones, is nonexistent. The left-leaning lists of the PD and AVS saw their 
votes almost halved in the same period.

While the Toscana Rossa list obtained 57,000 votes in the last regional 
elections, the Sinistra list had obtained 83,000 votes in the 2015 
regional elections; in 2020, it had obtained 79,000 votes. The 
controversy surrounding the government's response to COVID-19 has been 
particularly disruptive in this area, which in the subsequent elections 
(2022 general elections) dropped to 42,000 votes. Disaffection with the 
democratic system is actually widespread across all elections and 
increases each time. This is the incontrovertible fact. This could be an 
opportunity to promote our model of social organization: a society 
organized without government.

Lona Lenti

https://umanitanova.org/lastensione-fa-paura-elezioni-regionali-in-toscana/
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