A-Infos (en) Italy, Umanita Nova #24-25 - The War Widens. Poland: The Drone Crisis (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

While much attention is focused on Gaza, new peaks of international 
tension are being reached in Europe. Poland has reported the incursion 
of numerous Russian drones into its airspace. According to Ukrainian 
media and government sources, at least a large portion of these drones 
are unarmed Gerbera drones, used to confuse anti-aircraft guns, and also 
employ US and Australian electronic components. Of the many incidents of 
border incursions during these three and a half years of war, this is 
certainly the most widespread, particularly in Poland. Russia has denied 
any responsibility, and Belarus has stated that these Russian drones 
were knocked off course by electronic jamming weapons used by Ukrainian 
anti-aircraft guns against drones.

Unfortunately, during these years of war, we have learned that war 
propaganda creates such a curtain of disinformation that it is almost 
impossible to understand not only the dynamics and true scope, but 
sometimes even the very substance of certain facts. What is certain is 
that both sides want to continue and expand the war, or at least move to 
a further state of alert in Europe and a further level of border 
militarization. Consider, for example, the announced deployment of 
40,000 Polish soldiers on the country's eastern border and the ongoing 
joint Russian and Belarusian military exercises just a few kilometers away.

What has been called the "drone crisis" has indeed led to increased 
militarization of Poland's eastern border and increased NATO engagement 
with the new Operation "Eastern Sentry." This operation aims to 
strengthen NATO's capabilities on what is known as the "eastern flank." 
It was launched in response to Poland's invocation of Article 4 of the 
NATO Treaty, a procedure requiring consultation on military matters 
within the Alliance Council in the event that the territorial integrity, 
political independence, or security of a member state is threatened. 
These procedures typically result in the initiation of military operations.

This is the third time in the last 11 years that Article 4 has been 
invoked in the context of the conflict in Eastern Europe. The two 
previous occasions coincided with significant turning points in the 
conflict and with a greater military commitment from the Alliance. The 
first was in March 2014, at the initiative of Latvia, Lithuania, and 
Poland, following the occupation of Crimea by the Russian Federation. 
The second, which coincided with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 
February 2022, was much broader, including not only Latvia, Lithuania, 
and Poland, but also Estonia, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, 
and Romania. These precedents therefore suggest that we may be facing a 
further turning point in both NATO's commitment and the nature of the 
ongoing conflict.

Indeed, beyond the alarm raised by the media, statements from political 
and military authorities seem to be marking the beginning of a new 
phase. "We are prepared and ready to defend every inch of territory," 
declared NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "Europe must fight," 
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen began her State of 
the EU address, echoing Rutte's statement that "Europe will defend every 
inch of its territory." Speaking of the need to build a "drone wall," 
she added that "We can therefore use our industrial strength to help 
Ukraine respond to these drone attacks." She announced that the EU will 
"conclude a Drone Alliance with Ukraine," for which it has already 
secured new financing of EUR6 billion (already increased to EUR7 
billion) for drone construction. In the same speech, she also stated 
that "Ukraine will repay the loan only once Russia has paid the 
compensation." Adding fuel to the fire are the words of Polish Prime 
Minister Tusk: "This situation brings us all closer to open conflict, 
closer than at any time since the Second World War."

Likewise, the speech by Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who 
declared "we are moving on a ridge, where even unwittingly we can slide 
into an abyss of violence," recalling the start of the First World War, 
sounds more like a threat than the warning the press would like to 
portray it.

Operation "Eastern Sentry" currently involves France with three Rafale 
fighters, Germany with four Eurofighters, and Denmark with two F-16s and 
an anti-aircraft frigate. The United Kingdom has announced its 
participation. Rome appears to be still unsure about what to do. Some 
newspapers report that the government is considering participating in 
the operation with several F-35s, but that the League would prefer to 
focus its military efforts on neocolonial missions in the Mediterranean 
and Africa. This false internal opposition within the government, 
portrayed by the official media, reminds us, however, of Italy's 
significant involvement both in Eastern Europe and in several countries 
in Africa and the so-called Middle East.

Italy has already been heavily involved in Eastern Europe since 2014. 
Indeed, the area from the Baltic to the Black Sea is currently the 
"front" where the largest number of Italian armed forces personnel and 
equipment are deployed. A total of 3,503 soldiers, 1,155 land vehicles, 
3 naval units, and 23 aircraft are deployed as follows: 453 soldiers, 3 
ships, and 2 aircraft to strengthen NATO's naval presence in the Baltic, 
Black Sea, and Mediterranean; 300 soldiers and 12 aircraft to strengthen 
NATO air defense based in Rammstein, Germany; 2,340 soldiers, 1,052 land 
vehicles, and 9 aircraft deployed in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and 
Slovakia for the NATO Battlegroup, commanded by Italy and headquartered 
in Bulgaria; 330 soldiers and 103 vehicles for the NATO Battlegroup in 
Latvia; and 80 soldiers for the European EUMAM training mission for the 
Ukrainian armed forces. It should be noted that in the East, Italy also 
maintains a now "historic" presence in the Balkans, with 1,797 soldiers, 
508 land vehicles, and 5 aircraft.

You might think: military missions in Italy must go through parliament; 
Italy cannot be thrown into war over a diplomatic incident or a simple 
provocation. Wrong! This is no longer the case. Since this year, the 
government has effectively had carte blanche over military missions. A 
"High and Very High Operational Readiness Force" has been established, 
which, as can be seen by comparing the numbers for the missions just 
mentioned, represents a rather substantial contingent for the scale of 
Italian military operations, comprising 2,867 soldiers, 359 land 
vehicles, 4 naval vessels, and 15 aircraft. This contingent can be 
deployed at the executive's discretion. Indeed, the parliamentary 
documents relating to the approval of the military missions last April 
state that the actual deployment of these forces "at the time of the 
occurrence of the crisis or emergency, must in any case be approved by 
the Council of Ministers, after notifying the President of the Republic. 
The resolution is transmitted to the Chambers, which, within five days, 
with specific guidelines, according to their respective regulations, 
authorize or deny their deployment. Within ninety days of approval of 
the guidelines, the Government reports to the Chambers on the 
persistence of the crisis or emergency situations that led to the actual 
deployment of the forces." Although the wording attempts to sugarcoat 
the pill, the government has carte blanche over military interventions. 
A mission, even with serious political and military implications, can be 
launched exclusively at the government's initiative. Clearly, the 
authorization after five days represents only a formal parliamentary 
guarantee, since it intervenes after the fact. In this way, Law 168 of 
2024 has partially reformed the procedures for participating in military 
missions abroad, introducing greater opacity in parliamentary documents 
and enabling interoperability between different missions, so that forces 
deployed in one specific context can more easily be redeployed in 
another as needed.

But the opaqueness of information and decision-making processes in the 
military and beyond is not the only basis for these changes. They 
formalize a trend already established in practice, thus providing legal 
cover for the government's arrogance in this area, which has dominated 
the political landscape for the past decades, under governments of all 
stripes. But above all, it gives the executive more power in the 
military sphere. This means, in times of international tension, more 
power to implement a military campaign plan and have the tools ready in 
case of war. When the government, the President of the Republic, or the 
opposition parties candidly express alarm about the international 
situation, speak of the risk of war, when they say that Italy wants 
peace but that if necessary, it will do its part, they are actually 
trying to convince us, the entire population, that war must be waged, 
because they have been preparing for it for some time now. We must be 
ready now to knock the ground out from under the feet of the masters of war.

Dario Antonelli

https://umanitanova.org/la-guerra-che-si-allarga-polonia-la-crisi-dei-droni/
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