A-Infos (en) Italy, UCAD'I #184 - Notes on world disorder (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The European Parliament which will be elected from 6 to 9 June will 
designate the new Commission which will govern the European Union 
together with the Heads of State and Government. The new body will have 
to guide the Union for 5 difficult years as the winds of war blow ever 
more forcefully in Europe and around the world . Regardless of the 
outcome of the almost concurrent elections of the new President of the 
United States, the new European executive will have to move in an 
increasingly multipolar world, definitively taking note of the end of US 
hegemony over the world.
The recent enlargement of the Brics has profoundly changed the structure 
of the world balance and the aggregation of countries that recognize 
themselves in this cooperation association covers as much as 44% of 
world trade, but brings together a large part of the planet's population 
and is able to influence in an increasingly decisive way the world 
economy today characterized by a different distribution of the 
international division of labor, by the attribution of market shares, by 
the quality and quantity of production sectors belonging to the 
different economies. It follows that the
distribution of wealth at a global level is profoundly modified and is 
destined to further change over time in relation to the development 
prospects and the economic and productive organization of the different 
areas.
It must be acknowledged that a no-holds-barred clash is underway 
regarding the control of energy production, access to raw materials, the 
control of market shares regarding the various production sectors which 
takes on different characteristics from the past when the production 
cycle was based on steel production and other traditional economic 
parameters of the economy of the last century. Today the productions 
relating to information technology, telematics, artificial intelligence, 
technological innovation, the automation of production processes are the 
masters, all of this is accompanied by a distributed attribution of poor 
and marginal work functional to creating in the societies full of 
underdevelopment and poverty, compatible with a growing wealth of those 
who find themselves in top positions in the management of profit and 
accumulation.

The characteristics of the different production areas

The European productive area is characterized by quality agriculture 
capable of satisfying the needs of the populations and guaranteeing 
self-sufficiency. In the European economic model, manufacturing and the 
production of services that guarantee a high level of income assume 
importance; It is precisely the prevalence of the manufacturing sector 
that produces the coexistence in the territory of forms of production 
that reflect different models of work organisation,
creating a mix of simultaneous presence of advanced production models 
and so-called "backward" models. For example, alongside high-tech 
production sectors with a high level of automation and advanced 
management, there coexist sectors that use home working, the factory as 
part of a complex system of branches distributed throughout the 
territory which assemble, thanks to efficient logistics , different 
components produced in decentralized production units.
This production model. in the recent past, it aspired to achieve a green 
transformation regarding the use of energy, reducing the climate impact 
on the territory, achieving the abandonment of fossil fuels, to move on 
to the use of so-called clean energies. This project was accompanied by 
a more intense use of technological innovation and the exploitation of 
raw materials needed to create high-tech, innovative productions and 
products with high added value. The long-term objective consisted of an 
economy that we
defined as neocurtense which envisaged the downsizing of logistics, the 
partial return of strategic production to the territory, and a 
substantial strengthening of the European production model.[1]
The competitiveness of this model and its very feasibility is today 
called into question by the attack aimed at weakening its strengths by 
putting agriculture in crisis with the entry of Ukraine into the union 
which would be devastating for the country's agricultural policy. union, 
forcing the various European countries to rearmament, thus absorbing 
significant resources taken away from healthcare, education and welfare, 
making the concentric attack brought on by a different production model 
based on technological innovation accompanied by control and possession 
of raw materials, especially energy, and by a strong control exercised 
over the financial and capital markets, constituted by the United 
States, which is implementing an economic and commercial policy which 
provides for the return to the country of many productive activities, 
once decentralized, requires strong capital investments attracted 
through legislation to support foreign productive investments, which 
aims to maintain leadership in the most technologically advanced 
productions in order to exercise in this way a function of directing 
capitalist accumulation and political hegemony.
Among the competitors on a global level who aspire to establish this 
role there is certainly also China which is characterized by great 
attention to the development of the most advanced production sectors and 
dedicates particular attention to trade, diversifying its production 
investments through the acquisition of raw materials in third countries, 
in exchange for productive investments in infrastructure, gaining 
control of world trade flows and those of communication and trade 
routes, dedicating particular attention, together with Russia, to the 
opening of the Arctic route through which develop its trade activities 
towards Europe, not excluding sterilizing and gradually reducing the 
commercial flow that passes through the Mediterranean.
Taking these objectives into account, the attack brought by England and 
the United States on the economic policy of the European Union and on 
its stability through the Ukrainian war has produced the reversal of 
energy flows, the crisis of the agricultural economy of the union, the 
increase in production costs for European goods, determining the new 
direction of Russia's energy flows towards the Chinese and Indian 
production areas and this new structure of energy flows has ended up 
constituting a formidable element of support towards the economies of 
China and India, to the detriment of the European area, enhancing the 
take-off of those already growing economies.
The Arab-Israeli crisis fits into this context of rapidly changing 
economic and production flows as an element of disruption to the 
possible development of the economy of the Arab oil-producing countries 
which, however, continue to maintain a capital availability high enough 
to allow them to promote
productive investments that place them on the most advanced markets of 
energy, technological innovation and development.
In this new international context, Africa becomes the object of 
contention between different forces, competitive with each other, 
differently positioned at the moment, and destined to clash in the 
future to compete for hegemony. In particular, the band of Central 
African countries appears increasingly enfeoffed to the Russian presence 
which presides over the territory with its own militias; the Chinese 
presence is instead widespread everywhere, uselessly contrasted by a 
European and American presence that is struggling in the attempt to 
insert itself to compete and counter the competition of fierce 
competitors to
which is added with a growing weight the economic activity headed by 
India and the growing role of its production system and its economy.
The area that currently appears to be in greatest difficulty is Latin 
America, which is too divided and fragmented to compete on an equal 
footing with other entities operating on the international market and 
which aspire to play a leading role in the economic development of the 
planet.
Other economic and political areas of the world deserve careful analysis 
such as that of Turkey with projections towards Africa and the 
territories of Central Asia inhabited by Islamic populations, or the 
economic area that revolves around Indonesia and extends up to Japan and 
Taiwan, or even the area made up of the Indochinese peninsula and many 
others, so that we can have a global vision of the forces in the field 
that aspire to participate in the management of a now multipolar world 
that now presents itself as configured in "plates" . With this 
expression we intend to
refer to contiguous territories whose economies revolve around an 
attractive pole and tend to constitute a political-economic aggregate of 
common interest, thus certifying in practice the overcoming of the 
dimension of the jurisdiction of the nation state and starting the 
overcoming of its dimension with the result of fueling the differences 
between dominant and subordinate ethnic groups.

Elements of fragility of the system

Common elements of fragility of some of these political and economic 
systems come from their demographic structure. In particular, the 
European production model cannot help but be affected by the demographic 
crisis that is gripping the continent and which there is no desire to 
remedy due to a short-sighted migratory policy which, profoundly marked 
by racism, leads to the exclusion of migrants and prevents them from 
their contribution can compensate for the decline in births and the 
desertification produced by disastrous and devastating armed clashes 
such as the one in Ukraine.
With specific reference to Europe, it will be necessary to deepen the 
analysis, hypothesizing possible solutions to the problems emerging from 
the contemporary coexistence in the territory of the union of 5 
cultural-religious components: the Catholic one, the Protestant one, the 
Orthodox one, the Islamic one and the component that is inspired to the 
values of secularism and enlightenment, considering that the 
distribution of the population between these different memberships is 
numerically equivalent and will emerge with ever greater relevance, 
producing profound reflections on possible coexistence. A new amalgam
of these different cultural contributions is still to come and its 
relevance is currently underestimated, in our opinion, in relation to 
the weight it can take on for social peace and the possibility of 
allowing new impetus to the aspirations of the populations.
China will also have to deal with the demographic problem and the 
unstoppable progressive aging of its population, which is destined to 
see its active population progressively and drastically reduce over the 
next twenty years while at the same time the economic burden of managing 
the elderly population will grow. India and Africa find themselves in a 
different situation and can focus on the active role that their 
population, largely made up of young people, capable of giving their 
active contribution to the development of the production system and 
offering cheap labor.
With these "notes on world disorder" we intend to start a reflection in 
several stages which will try to reconstruct the characteristics and 
possible scenarios of the "plates" in which the distribution of the 
multipolar world which constitutes the new order of world disorder is 
taking shape or if he prefers the new order which will however have as 
its characterizing element the continuous and repeated development of 
conflicts. However, having an analysis that evaluates the possible 
impact of the various factors leads to reconstructing the overall 
picture and constitutes the pre-conditions for being able to at least 
hypothesize a possible strategy to counter a project that has the sole 
objective of perpetuating and deepening the inequalities and 
exploitation of one over another.

[1]Analysis of the 2022 phase, Political Growth Newsletter, N 163 - sep. 
2022, https://www.ucadi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/163.pdf

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2024/04/25/appunti-sul-disordine-mondiale/
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