A-Infos (en) Italy, UCDI #183 - The Portuguese stalemate (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The Portuguese elections ended with a result of substantial parity 
between the Socialist Party (28.63) and the Democratic Alliance (28.66); 
the first with 77 deputies and the second 79, but the final count is 
missing the results relating to the four constituencies of residents 
abroad which could lead to absolute parity, considering that in past 
elections they were the prerogative of the socialists. The situation is 
complicated by the fact that the balance of power for the formation of 
the government is the far-right Chega party, with 48 deputies, voted by 
18% of the electorate. Democratic Alliance (AD), the result of an 
electoral agreement between the Social Democratic Party, the People's 
Party and the Monarchist People's Party, led by Luis Montenegro, who was 
quick to declare that he will not agree to form a coalition government 
with Chega. This statement was followed by that of Pedro Nuno Santos, 
socialist leader, who assured Montenegro of external support in case he 
decided to form a minority government. Furthermore, 8 liberal initiative 
deputies were elected with 5.8% of the votes; 5 seats went to the left 
bloc with 4.46% of the votes, 4 seats to the CDU-PCP communist and green 
alliance, with 3.30% of the votes and finally 4 deputies to the 
environmentalist party Livre with 3.26% 1 seat for the animal rights 
party PAN. There was a greater participation than in previous elections, 
with a turnout of 66.23%. Compared to the 10.8 million entitled to vote.
The early elections were necessary following a scandal relating to the 
exploitation of a lithium mine in which numerous socialist ministers 
were involved. The Prime Minister Antonio Costa, also involved in the 
affair, was found to be uninvolved in the facts; initially accused, 
because he is the namesake of a minister, he kept his resignation for 
consistency, although in 10 years of good administration he has restored 
the country's budget and its economy without resorting to social 
butchery by making the less well-off classes pay the cost .
The Chega party led by a lawyer and former sports journalist, exploited 
popular discontent due to the progressive deterioration of services, the 
health crisis, policies to contain public spending, the growing problem 
of emigration, the transformation of Portugal into a -refuge for 
Europe's pensioners, which has affected the real estate market and 
contributed to the local population moving to the outskirts of less 
served cities.

Holland effect

It is possible that the final vote count will see the Socialist Party 
obtain the majority of seats: how then to explain the recognition of the 
Democratic Alliance's victory? This happens because the main intent of 
the Socialist Party is to prevent the formation of a government 
resulting from the alliance between the main opposing party and the 
neo-fascist Chega party: the declared availability for external support 
for a Democratic Alliance government
it would make it possible to make the exclusion ad exclusion work 
towards Chega's entry into the government, at the same time allowing the 
socialists to heavily influence the government, forced to seek from time 
to time the majorities needed to approve each measure.
Upon closer inspection we are faced with a stalemate situation, partly 
similar to that which occurred in the Netherlands with the victory of 
Wilders, who 3 months after the elections was unable to form a 
government and is preparing to create a so-called extra-parliamentary 
government (a sort of Italian-style technical government. What happens 
demonstrates that the electoral victory of the right often translates 
into a situation of immobility and stalemate, characterized by 
unrealistic programs for the restructuring of social and economic 
relations between the classes which, as proven by the facts, prove 
impossible to achieve.
It is not unlikely that in Portugal as in the Netherlands the situation 
will be clarified and definitively unblocked only after the European 
elections which will effectively constitute a verification of the 
orientations of the electorate with respect to the national elections 
and will confirm or deny the advance of the right and the their success 
among voters. On the other hand, national policies now have little 
breathing space in all European countries, since budget management 
depends almost totally on community policies, due to the management of 
financial flows, the coordination of economic policies, the 
international division of labor and the distribution of production 
quotas across the territories.
A reversal of trend and an overcoming of this political phase is 
inextricably linked to the policies relating to military spending, the 
rearmament of Europe and the choices relating to the adoption of a war 
economy on which, for the moment, European countries appear divided 
between a part of them that accepts the US and NATO diktat of bringing 
military spending to at least 2% of GDP and another part of the 
countries that aims at rearmament through the creation of an economy of 
scale which, by standardizing production and weapons systems, aims to 
create economies to be allocated to new investments, starting from the 
observation that already today the spending on armaments by EU countries 
is higher in volume than that of Russia, but achieves lower results due 
to lack of coordination of production and non-compatibility of weapon 
systems.
What the parties of the left should understand is that their political 
defeat is inextricably linked to the vision that the electorate has of 
them and their role, which identifies them as "genetically" leaning 
towards peace and therefore does not recognize them as warmongers.

G.L.

https://www.ucadi.org/2024/03/17/lo-stallo-portoghese/
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