A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #181: The electoral orgy (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

2024 is a year of election deadlines; it seems that 64 countries will go 
to the polls, liberal, self-styled democratic, dictatorial states. For 
each of them it is said that it is the triumph of democratic 
participation and citizens' choices, the orgy of participation and 
sharing of power, the renewal of the mandate to govern. In reality we 
are faced with a farce, a drama that hides the fact that those who 
firmly hold the levers of power are the capitalist and oligarchic groups 
of the various state aggregates that control the economic and political 
life of the societies that own them . Citizens of the European Union and 
those of the United States, Great Britain, Russia and many other states 
are called to vote.
Even if we are faced with a formal renewal of the mandate of the 
political elites who manage power, there is no doubt that the choices 
that will be made will have a significant impact on the development of 
economic and political events because the electoral result constitutes a 
tool for selecting the ruling groups, expression of the different groups 
that compete for power. It is therefore worth examining the declared 
programs and strategies of the various forces that aim to manage the 
interests and political choices of the various states competing for 
hegemony on a global level.

The renewal of the Presidency of the United States

For the lessons of the President of the United States we will vote on 
November 5, but primaries are already taking place in January to 
identify the candidates who will go to the ballot, in compliance with 
the US electoral system. There is no doubt that many of the current 
events, first of all the war in Ukraine and the Middle Eastern crisis, 
are conditioned by the outcome of this election because the two probable 
candidates, Biden and Trump, have diametrically opposed positions with 
respect to the two conflicts and the conditioning power of what is 
considered to be the leading world power from an economic and military 
point of view will certainly influence the development and resolution of 
conflicts. In particular, it is hypothesized that Biden's reconfirmation 
will allow the continuation of support for Ukraine, given the 
commitments of this administration in the ongoing war, due to the 
economic and strategic interests that the United States has in the 
conduct of the war.
Conversely, the isolationist tendency of the Republicans, well expressed 
by Trump's positions, could lead to a disengagement of the United States 
from the conflict, the weight of which would fall entirely on the 
European Union and on a NATO deprived of the main US support. In this 
case, a recomposition of the conflict would be inevitable in light of 
the fact that the European Union is not able to withstand the 
confrontation militarily and is already struggling to support it 
economically, proof of which is that the budgets of the various states 
are in crisis and very strong are the social tensions and economic 
consequences of engaging in the war effort and supporting the 8 million 
Ukrainian refugees.
It is difficult to speculate on what the effects of one or the other 
choice of US voters would be in the case of the conflict in the Middle 
East since the positions that the two candidates have on the ongoing 
crisis are already unclear.
However, full success for Israel, with the total genocide of the 
Palestinians and their expulsion from both Gaza and the West Bank, 
appears not only undesirable but difficult to achieve. Only fanatics 
like Netanyahu and the religious leaders of the Israeli right can think 
of an Israel that has full control of all of Palestine, totally erasing 
the Palestinian presence. In light of these considerations, the current 
US administration's hypothesis of a two-state solution, although very 
difficult to implement, appears to be the only one that is in some way 
viable, even if with extremely great difficulties.
It appears even more difficult to evaluate the impact that the two 
candidates would have on the development of global policies and 
especially economic ones, also because at the moment a reorganization of 
the international distribution of work, of the control of markets, of 
access to materials and first, of energy management, for which it 
appears difficult to predict what could be the most credible scenarios 
for the evolution of the economic and strategic situation, as well as of 
international relations, especially since the growing importance and the 
increasingly strengthened by the BRICS group, which will certainly play 
a fundamental role in the future economic and strategic structures of 
the planet.
However, voters largely orient their vote on the basis of internal 
politics and the immediate needs that emerge from their concrete living 
and working conditions: on the basis of this consideration, the problems 
on which the interest of the US electorate will presumably focus are 
those of the concrete economic conditions and of the labor market, of 
emigration and, in the field of civil rights, the right to resort to 
abortion, connected to the exercise of responsible and free motherhood, 
to gender policies and to the protection of diversity.
Well, the growing difficulties on the job market, the cost of energy and 
fuel have affected many citizens of the deep country and in the 
comparison between before and after, they see a worsening of their 
condition with the Biden administration, and this despite the economy 
going through a relatively positive phase, what worries the electorate 
is the growth of emigration, above all, towards the liberal areas of the 
country, such as New York, which leads the democratic and liberal 
electorate above all to be critical of the policies of party.. The 
Supreme Court's decision to sanction the right to abortion has mobilized 
a part of the liberal electorate and will presumably continue to do so, 
but above all at a decentralized level, since the initiatives focus on 
the policies of the States that derogate from the Supreme Court's 
guidelines , given the difficulties of changing its orientation: judges 
once appointed are not members for life. It is therefore possible that 
we are moving towards a sort of balkanization of the country's legal 
system regarding this problem, with the adoption of different policies 
from state to state.
The same goes for gender policies which find resistance and opposition, 
as always, spread across the territory in a patchy pattern with more 
open and liberal states and communities and others which instead orient 
themselves towards conservative and fundamentalist positions. Both of 
these choices lead to distancing oneself from voting on the occasion of 
elections federal elections.
It is for this set of reasons that the final outcome of the US elections 
appears more uncertain than ever and the events that will develop in the 
coming months will be crucial and decisive and will orient an electorate 
that is in any case dissatisfied with having to choose between two 
octogenarians, tired of a politics of contrast between Biden and Trump.

The European elections

All the countries of the Union will also vote for the election of 
community bodies. It will be necessary to see whether the current 
government majority, made up of an alliance between socialists, liberals 
and the Christian Democratic centre, will continue to govern the Union, 
doing without an organic relationship with the conservatives who present 
themselves as the true unknown factor in the future balance of power. 
management of community tasks. In the case of a reconfirmation of the 
alliance between socialists, Christian Democrats and liberals, the 
tendency to reconfirm the current orientations in terms of green 
politics will be very strong, even if there will be pressure from those 
groups and forces pushing towards the banking union, the adoption of a 
common tax system, closer relations between the different states of the 
union, with the ever-increasing transfer to Brussels of the actual 
powers of management of macroeconomic policies and vice versa an 
increase in autonomies on the periphery, which would act as 
administrative terminals of the management centralized at community level.
Instead, the inclusion in the majority of the conservative group, both 
in the case that this entails marginalization of the socialists, and in 
the hypothesis that this entry occurs by adding the conservative 
component to the current alliance of management of the Union, we would 
still witness a accentuation of the structure of the Union in a federal 
sense, with the loosening of ties at community level and the growth of 
the autonomy of individual states.
In any case, there is no doubt that the new mandate of the European 
Commission will have to face key and unavoidable strategic problems such 
as that of equipping itself with a common defense, choosing which 
relationship to develop with the BRICS countries, deciding which policy 
to pursue towards Africa is determined to take clear positions in its 
relations with both Russia and China. In fact, there is no doubt that 
the world is starting to increasingly assume a multipolar structure 
within which the European Union is only one of the economic-productive 
islands that compete on a global scale to compete for hegemony and the 
construction of new balances and relationships.
As regards the weight of domestic problems on community policy, it is 
noted that with the expansion of membership and the entry of new 
countries, the Union is destined to see an addition to the many existing 
problems relating to common defence, to relations between center and 
periphery , to the institutional dynamics concerning decision-making 
processes (whether or not to operate by majority or unanimity) will see 
the addition of the currently underestimated problem of the growing 
crisis of the common agricultural policy which - it is worth remembering 
- has been one of the most solid bases on which the European Union is 
founded. I would never tire enough of underlining that Ukraine's sudden 
entry into the union - due to the problems it brings with it - plays a 
destabilizing role with respect to cohesion policies and certainly does 
not help the overall economic development of the member states of this 
aggregate. In particular, the conditions of the rule of law in the 
country, the extent of the corruption phenomenon, the hydrogeological 
instability resulting from the war, the pollution of the soil, the 
disastrous management of the after-effects of a devastating conflict 
which will weigh like a burden are having a negative impact. on the 
shoulders of all the countries that are currently part of the European 
Union.
The consequences of this unfortunate choice risk being to accentuate the 
weight of the right-wing parties which forcefully propose to manage this 
discontent, proof of which is the emergence in all countries of more or 
less strong and consistent peasant parties, aligned on conservative and 
identitarian positions.
The European Union cannot simultaneously support the implementation of 
green policies which requires sacrifices and painful choices in the 
agricultural sector compared to the industrial and manufacturing sector 
and the introduction of further elements of crisis, consisting of 
enlargement to countries that require a long phase of collaboration to 
amalgamate from the structural point of view and the distribution of 
work and production quotas with the bloc of countries that have been 
part of the EU for a long time.

A multipolar world

The new rulers who will be selected by the electoral orgy will however 
have to deal with a group of BRICS countries, now 10, which manage over 
40% of world production and trade, which see within them the presence of 
the major producers of energy, thus controlling the energy market, which 
include regional powers with imperial aspirations, which aspire to 
reconstruct and attribute to themselves a dimension of regional powers, 
configuring a plate world, which follows the tectonic structure of the 
physical world in outlining the areas of expansion of their influence.
In fact, there is no doubt that a strategic political space is being 
consolidated in which Turkey, one of the Arab and Islamic countries, 
operates, while China and India do the same. already having continental 
dimensions and therefore they aspire to control and expand their area of 
influence. The same can also be said for the areas that are organized 
around the countries of the South Pacific, or around Japan which is 
making the choice to rearmament, while Latin and Central America and 
Africa which in fact they will constitute the terrain on which we will 
try to build hegemony.
The ambitions of US politicians and strategists who dream and work for 
an ethnic fragmentation of the immense Russian territory and who have 
the same aims and objectives for China and why not for India appear 
completely futuristic, at least for now. In an increasingly multipolar 
and polycentric world, those who survive are the political economic 
entities that form a system, in some way self-sufficient, capable of 
developing synergies and distribution of work within themselves in a 
protected environment, differentiated roles through which they 
contribute to keeping the increasingly complex economic systems and 
societies. Microsystems or even worse the dream of a hegemonic country 
that dominates over others has definitively faded, regardless of what 
the rulers of the United States and those dying and dying of Great 
Britain think.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2024/01/23/lorgia-elettorale/
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