A-Infos (en) Italy, FAI, Umanita Nova #27-26 - The Beauty of Winter: Declining Birth Rates and an Aging Population (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Given that I have spent a significant part of my life working in the 
field of demography, I was asked to write an article about the so-called 
"demographic winter." I dislike this term, as it seems to imply that 
phenomena I consider positive-such as increased life expectancy and 
declining fertility-should be viewed negatively. Nevertheless, I will 
offer some thoughts on the subject, starting with what Wikipedia says 
about it; despite its obvious limitations and the recent rise of 
so-called "artificial intelligence," Wikipedia remains one of the 
information sources most widely used by the general public.

"Demographic winter," states Wikipedia, "is a term coined by some 
sociologists to describe the aging-that is, the rise in the average 
age-of a population."

The term was first used by Michel Schooyans, a professor emeritus at the 
Catholic University of Louvain (since 1968). Regarding Europe, 
politicians of various stripes have warned of "demographic suicide." At 
the conclusion of the "Family" conference held on January 20, 1989, 
French Prime Minister Michel Rocard declared: "Most Western European 
states are poised to commit suicide-a demographic suicide..."

A country needs to maintain a birth rate (or, more accurately, a Total 
Fertility Rate-TFR) of 2.1 children per woman to replace its current 
population. However, in Europe, the birth rate (the TFR) stands at just 
1.3, and it is estimated that by 2030, Europe will face a shortfall of 
20 million workers. At the same time, Russia is projected to lose 
one-third of the population it had in the early 2000s by 2050. For the 
first time in 60 years, China's population recorded a decline in both 
2022 and 2023. (...)

The BBC has stated that Europe is experiencing a "demographic winter": 
population levels in various parts of the developed world are declining, 
but this is particularly evident in Western countries-and especially in 
Europe. (...). Many countries lack a sufficient number of young people 
to replenish their populations and thus cope with the economic burden of 
an aging populace. (...)

In Italy, between 2008 and 2025, the number of births fell from 576,000 
to 355,000-a drop of 221,000, or 38.4%. This decline affects both 
Italian and foreign-born populations alike. In 2010, the total fertility 
rate stood at 1.46 children per woman; by 2024, it had dropped to a 
record low of 1.18, falling further to 1.14 in 2025. (...)»

As I mentioned at the outset, the fact that life expectancy at birth 
(and, above all, healthy life expectancy) is rising does not distress 
me-not least because I am getting on in years myself-nor am I troubled 
by the low birth rate (the global population has recently surpassed 
eight billion, placing unsustainable pressure on the planet). As for the 
claim that a decline in fertility rates would cause a shortage of 
working-age people-and that, consequently, "many countries do not have 
enough young people to (...) cope with the economic burden of an aging 
population"-this strikes me as highly questionable. It is well known, 
after all, that new technologies are making human labor increasingly 
unnecessary in agriculture and industry, thereby allowing a growing 
number of working-age individuals to engage in caregiving roles.

Focusing specifically on the situation in Italy, it is evident that even 
if the number of young people were to prove insufficient in a few years 
to "cope with the burden (...) of an aging population," the solution 
would simply be to open our borders to the many young migrants eager to 
live in our country.

I should point out that, in the quote cited above, I removed the 
adjective "economic," replacing it with an ellipsis in parentheses. I 
did this because Italy has reached a point of absurdity where the 
working-age population often does not provide the financial support for 
the elderly. In many instances, the exact opposite occurs: it is the 
elderly population-thanks to contributions paid or rights won long ago 
through hard-fought struggles-that financially supports the working-age 
population. Furthermore, there is an increasing number of cases where 
children conceal the bodies of their elderly parents in order to 
continue collecting their pension payments...

In short: the era in Italy when a farmer would head to work knowing he 
had to bring home food for himself, his parent, and the young child 
who-once grown-would support him in his old age, is long gone.

Luciano Nicolini

https://umanitanova.org/il-bello-dellinverno-calo-delle-nascite-e-invecchiamento-della-popolazione/
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