A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #209 - They came to play and were played (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The bold troops of the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic 
Republic, bombing it far and wide, killing 168 girls in a school, 
convinced that their air and naval power would easily overcome Iranian 
resistance. After months of war, Trump and Netanyahu had to acknowledge 
that the aggression had failed to achieve its goals, despite committing 
grave atrocities, such as targeting and killing negotiating delegations 
during negotiations . Despite having assassinated the country's highest 
political officials, Iran did not collapse, thanks to its adoption of a 
checkerboard defense where each regional command center is independent 
and reacts to the attack without the need for centralized orders. Regime 
change, one of the main declared objectives of the war, quickly 
disappeared from the list, after having sent the most naive regime 
opponents, who had been induced to take to the streets, to their deaths. 
Iranian defenses, prepared for years and hidden beneath basalt 
mountains, allowed Iranian launchers to emerge from shelters, fire, and 
go back into hiding. Even if detected, they were still able to rescue 
the launchers through a maze of tunnels, leaving them to sleep, ready to 
return to operation once the entrances to the bombed shelters were reopened.

Burial of the 168 girls aged 7 to 12 from the Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls' 
Primary School in Minab (Hormozgan province, southern Iran), killed by 
the United States.

But the trump card was not missiles, drones, or nuclear weapons-which 
Iran does not have and does not want for ethical reasons, in obedience 
to a fatwa from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-but rather its control, for 
purely geographical reasons, of the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians 
promptly closed to transit, blocking thousands of ships and preventing 
the sale of everything produced in the Gulf. This resulted in an 
uncontrolled rise in the prices of raw materials and goods originating 
from Hormuz, which initially delighted Trump and his followers, who took 
advantage of the situation to speculate on the sudden price hikes 
resulting from the US tycoon's artfully uttered rants, which have thrown 
the global economy, especially the European one, into crisis, while also 
fueling inflation in the US. Trump was forced to temporarily lift 
sanctions on Russian oil sales to avert a global economic catastrophe 
that would have also overwhelmed the United States.
Many wonder whether Netanyahu dragged Trump into the war and whether the 
true masterminds of the conflict were the Israelis, thanks to the work 
of their secret services and the international Jewish lobby, which 
operates primarily in the United States. Israel's will was certainly 
crucial in convincing Trump, but its action is also part of a plan of 
its own, aimed at the United States's tighter control of oil-producing 
countries, continuing a path begun with the coup in Venezuela. Control 
of the oil market is essential for the United States, which has built a 
"rentier economy" around the dollar that allows it to live beyond its 
means, exploiting others while reducing its own productive captivity: 
this system has now reached its end.
China, in particular, opposed these maneuvers, giving the impression of 
holding firm despite having previously invested heavily in all Middle 
Eastern countries and being able to produce 80% of the energy its 
production system requires, while simultaneously storing the world's 
largest strategic oil reserve. This enabled it to withstand months-long 
supply disruptions, but left many Far Eastern countries, especially 
Europe, exposed. The conduct of the conflict led to constant 
fluctuations in oil prices, further crippling the European economy, 
already devastated by the loss of energy supplies from Russia. Thus, the 
oil crisis resulting from the closure of the Hormuz Bridge also 
benefited Russia, which saw its oil sales revenues significantly 
increase due to the suspension of sanctions requested by Trump.
But Iran's other decidedly clever move was to bomb US bases in 
neighboring Arab countries, as well as their production facilities, 
causing serious damage and rendering ineffective the protection that the 
presence of these bases should have guaranteed. At the same time, it 
launched missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory and its 
infrastructure, repeatedly breaching Israeli defenses and causing damage 
whose extent we do not know due to censorship.

The role of Sunni countries in the conflict

The situation had begun to change following the defense pact signed in 
September between Riyadh and Islamabad, known as the "Strategic Mutual 
Defense Agreement." The agreement stipulates that an attack against one 
of the two countries is considered an attack on both, a mutual defense 
clause modeled on NATO's Article 5. In exchange for its military and 
nuclear umbrella, Pakistan receives funding to support a fragile economy 
and enables long-standing cooperation; it's enough to recall that 
Pakistan once acquired its nuclear weapons thanks to Saudi funding. 
Turkey and Egypt are now joining this core group, effectively creating 
an alliance between Sunni countries known as the "Muhammad Pact" (STEP). 
The alliance aims to rebalance the Middle East and create a regional 
security system that can act as a counterweight to both Israel and Iran.
The project's strength lies in the complementarity of its members. The 
Saudis have the money, the Pakistanis the nuclear bombs, the Turks the 
technology and a strong army, certainly the largest in NATO, and the 
Egyptians a formidable one.
Saudi Arabia provides economic resources guaranteed by oil; Pakistan the 
nuclear arsenal, ballistic missiles, and numerous armed forces; Turkey 
an advanced defense industry, including drones, and soldiers with field 
experience; Egypt, one of the largest armies in the region. This 
combination creates a militarily autonomous entity. On the fringes of 
the alliance, which is on the verge of being formalized, lies Qatar's 
decision to entrust Ankara with the training of its military and has 
reportedly expressed its willingness to join.
It should be emphasized that the pact is between countries all with a 
Sunni majority and is not merely military. In parallel with the security 
negotiations, the four participating countries have signed contracts for 
railways, logistics centers, transportation networks, and digital 
systems. China is not sitting idly by and is reaping the benefits of its 
neutrality, offering investments in infrastructure and declaring its 
willingness to build factories for its drones to be used by host 
countries. Construction of an oil pipeline is also taking shape, 
designed to carry crude oil from Saudi Arabian fields to the 
Mediterranean, freeing the country from the bottleneck of Hormuz.
The rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, rivals until a few years 
ago, is translating into military cooperation: the two air forces are 
training together and considering the creation of a joint wing to 
protect Saudi airspace, pending greater coordination. From a 
geopolitical perspective, it should be remembered that the four 
countries border some of the most sensitive maritime passages for world 
trade: the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb, the Bosphorus, and the Strait 
of Hormuz. The ability to control or maintain pressure on these maritime 
hubs represents a significant lever in regional and international 
balances, and removes these important global trade hubs from US control, 
a crucial factor at a time when the reopening of Hormuz is a key point 
of the agreement with Iran.
Certainly, the many previous failed attempts to establish a stable 
structure for alliances and federations among Muslim countries, though 
born with great ambitions, dissolved within a few months, from the era 
of Nasserism to that of Baathism. This does not bode well for what is 
happening now. However, all the conditions now appear to exist for a 
definitive collapse of the "Abraham Pacts" and the concomitant US 
presence in the region, acting as a policeman to protect Israel, in its 
capacity as a privileged partner and colonial sub-agent of US 
imperialism. This is why, ultimately, the countries of the newly formed 
alliance should thank Iran for having created the conditions for the US 
expulsion from the region through the attack on their bases, which have 
proven far from invulnerable and capable of providing defense for their 
host countries.
The United States deployed three aircraft carrier groups in the area, 
but they were forced to stay at least 1,000 kilometers away from the 
Iranian coast, fearing drone and hypersonic missile attacks. Despite 
this, US aircraft carriers were subjected to attacks that were passed 
off as accidents, such as the fire on the aircraft carrier Ford, which 
forced the ship to withdraw from the war zone. We do not know how many 
aircraft were hit, certainly including an AWACS, destroyed at the bases 
where they were housed, unprotected. The US radar warning network built 
in the Middle East was destroyed. Ground troops stationed at the bases 
were moved to hotels for fear of being hit, as their accommodations were 
inadequate to protect them. This led to the damage to hotels in some 
Gulf countries, which compromised the safety of tourists, driving them 
away from the Gulf.
The US sinking of the Iranian navy was ineffective, despite the clear 
violation of the laws of the sea by refusing to rescue the survivors of 
an unarmed vessel that sank off the coast of Sri Lanka, returning from a 
mission in Indonesia. It was the task of small boats and minelayers to 
effectively defend the strait and impede navigation with swift 
incursions, which were nevertheless sufficient to convince insurance 
companies not to insure transiting vessels.
This resulted in a complete blockade of the strait, halting exports not 
only of oil and gas, but also of chemicals such as urea, essential for 
fertilizers and for Indian and Asian agriculture, as well as aluminum, 
produced in the Gulf thanks to the availability of cheap energy. The 
operation of databases located in the Gulf appears potentially 
compromised due to the availability of cheap energy for refrigeration.
This reconstruction explains the central role played by Pakistan in the 
peace talks and the fact that, faced with growing opposition in the US 
to the war, sanctioned to Trump's disappointment by Congress even after 
the opening of negotiations, and which has caused rising inflation, 
Trump had to moderate his views by asking for the intercession of 
Pakistan, the nuclear power of the incoming alliance, to try to obtain a 
ceasefire, in order to prepare a broader agreement, not after making 
some significant concessions, agreeing to negotiate on the basis of 14 
points proposed by Iran.

The 14 points

To analyze the 14 points, we use the memorandum of understanding 
electronically signed by the parties to the conflict.

Immediate and permanent cessation of military operations between the 
parties and their allies, including the Lebanese front.
Respect for sovereignty
Both countries undertake not to interfere in each other's internal affairs.
Deadline for final agreement
The parties aim to negotiate and sign the final agreement within 60 days.
End of Naval Blockade
The United States will begin lifting its naval blockade and completely 
withdraw its forces around Iran after the final agreement.
Strait of Hormuz Security
Iran to ensure transit of commercial vessels and begin talks on future 
administration of the Strait
Reconstruction Plan
Washington will promote a program of reconstruction and economic 
development for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
Sanctions Lifting
The United States is committed to the progressive elimination of 
international and unilateral sanctions against Iran.
Nuclear Program
: Iran reiterates that it will not develop nuclear weapons; the parties 
will negotiate the management of enriched uranium and the future of the 
nuclear program.
Maintaining the status quo
Until the final agreement, Iran will not expand its nuclear program and 
the United States will not introduce new sanctions.
Resumption of oil exports
Washington will grant waivers to allow Iran to export oil and conduct 
related financial transactions.
The United States will reopen Iranian funds
frozen abroad.
Verification Mechanism
A body will be established to monitor the implementation of the agreement.
Start of final negotiations
Negotiations on the final agreement will start after the implementation 
of the first concrete measures foreseen in the Protocol.
UN Ratification
The final agreement will have to be approved by the UN Security Council.

As can be seen, the immediate cessation of hostilities concerns not only 
Iran, but also Lebanon, and non-interference in internal affairs 
benefits the attacked country. Meanwhile, the mutual lifting of the 
naval blockade and, more importantly, the planned withdrawal of US 
military deployments has been postponed until after the negotiations, 
increasing the cost of the operation for the US by at least 60 days. The 
biggest losers in this development are the Emiratis, who are outside 
this Sunni Muslim alliance, having chosen to maintain privileged, more 
or less shady business relationships in Africa and Somaliland with 
Israel and with Jordan, which is at risk of imploding.
Iran's commitment to guaranteeing navigation through the Strait is 
nothing new; in the past, the Strait has always been open to transit. 
What is new is the fact that Iran will lead negotiations to buy time and 
establish a new protocol, likely involving the payment of transit 
services, to be collected jointly with Oman, in exchange for the right 
to free navigation. For the supermarket, Washington has committed to 
gradually releasing Iranian funds set aside due to the sanctions that 
will be lifted. A Washington-sponsored development plan of at least $300 
billion will be launched, which has the flavor of war reparations 
(though it will likely remain only on paper). Iran reiterates that it 
will not develop nuclear weapons and declares its willingness to 
negotiate the management of its enriched uranium, but reaffirms its 
right to develop its civilian nuclear program, subject to the United 
States' commitment not to impose new sanctions. It will be free to 
export oil and gas and conduct related financial transactions, free from 
sanctions, and will be able to access frozen accounts abroad. The 
agreement will be approved by the UN and monitored by a specially 
established body, and will be implemented gradually.
As can be seen, there are all the conditions to speak of a strategic and 
tactical victory for Iran. Iran maintains its deterrence, strengthens 
its security, and gains political and economic leverage, effectively 
positioning itself as an indispensable player in the strategic balance 
of power in the Middle East. It will have to co-manage the region's new 
balance of power with the newly formed Sunni alliance. In this new 
Middle East, there is no room for a hegemonic US presence, and a 
containment belt far stronger than ever has been created around Israel, 
equipped with Pakistan's nuclear weapons and made up of the powerful 
ground forces of Turkey, which effectively controls Syria, and Egypt, 
supported by Saudi capital. Added to this is the axis of Shiite 
resistance, which continues to exist.

This was desired by China, which paved the way for this scenario through 
the peace and cooperation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, 
signed before the war in Beijing and which dragged both countries into 
the BRICS, in the name of common economic and trade interests.

The defeat of Israel

Netanyahu has succeeded in the masterpiece of making the Jewish state 
increasingly insecure, uniting his regional opponents, whose conflicts 
he has until recently exploited to crush the Palestinians. Even Hamas, 
by sacrificing the Gazans, can boast of having sunk the "Abrahamic 
Pacts." Israel will certainly do everything to maintain its presence in 
Lebanon and will continue to pound the soft underbelly of Jordan, but it 
should be aware that it will soon find the Turkish army deployed on 
those borders and will therefore have to, at the very least, scale back 
its aggression.
The Israelis are aware of this and therefore, furious, continue to bomb 
Lebanon in an attempt to undermine the agreement and the negotiations. 
One phase of the war in the Middle East seems over, but even if the 
actors are preparing to change, it is a fact that the United States is 
on the way to being dramatically excluded. Of course, there is a clear 
possibility of a rekindled conflict, and to address this threat, Iran is 
preparing to buy time through negotiations. As Israeli intelligence 
services noted, a report by the Jerusalem Post on June 27, 2025, stated 
that Iran has prepared to produce approximately 6,000 new ballistic 
missiles by 2026, 8,800 by August 2027, and to exceed 10,000 new 
missiles in 2028. It should also be considered that new presidential 
elections will be held in the United States in November 2028, the date 
on which Trump will exit the presidency.
In the meantime, there will clearly be plenty of time to improve the 
product, thanks to agreements with Russian and Chinese allies for the 
exchange of information and technology, in addition to the growth of the 
Iranians' own autonomous capabilities in improving their product. In any 
case, sufficient time will pass for the alliance between Turkey, Egypt, 
Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan to effectively take the place of the United 
States and replace it, ousting it from the Middle East.
It is also quite clear that the passage of time significantly reduces 
Israel's aggressive capabilities, which will have to confront Turkey and 
its allies on the Syrian border in a battle of attrition. For Iran, the 
Muhammadan alliance will certainly be a regional competitor, but it will 
not facilitate, indeed, hinder, the "Greater Israel" project, confining 
the Jewish state in a redoubt where it risks suffocation.
The weak point of this plan lies in the consequences the war will have 
on the country's internal situation, effects that require analysis and 
to which we will return.

Gianni Cimbalo

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/06/27/vennero-per-suonare-e-furono-suonati/
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